MOTS DITS et GARDE-NOTES

JAMES ADAMS

From Saturday’s Globe and Mail Published on Saturday, Jan. 09, 2010 12:00AM EST Last updated on Saturday, Jan. 09, 2010 3:07AM EST

By the end of this weekend (probably) or the end of next (certainly), James Cameron’s science-fiction epic Avatar will go into the record books as the highest-grossing film of all time worldwide, eclipsing the current milestone of $1.84-billion set more than 12 years ago by Titanic, that other nine-figure-budget Cameron epic.

At least that’s what Avatar’s distributor, Twentieth Century Fox, likely will boast, in the hope that boasting will beget belief. However, it’s a claim that will come under considerable scrutiny if only because Mark Twain’s aphorism – « there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics » – has achieved the status of self-evident truth since it was uttered in 1907.

No one, of course, can deny that Avatar is both phenomenon and phenomenal success. As the distinguished film critic and historian David Thomson told me earlier this week: « Something is happening here, and I think it has to do with cinema’s unending ability to produce some kind of spectacle that we’ve never seen before. » And this from a man who didn’t want to see it and, in fact, admits to largely « hating » it.

(His response is shared by some conservatives and Republicans who see its pro-environment, anti-military and pantheistic themes as just so much « cinematic Obamaism. » « Blitheringly stupid » was John Podhoretz’s evaluation in The Weekly Standard; « a sanctimonious thud of a movie infested with one-dimensional characters and PC clichés » and « a Death Wish for liberals, a simplistic revisionist revenge fantasy, » according to John Nolte on the Big Hollywood website.)

As of Jan. 6, it had earned an estimated $1,131,752,464 (U.S.) worldwide, with $374,445,852 of that coming from Canada and the United States, Box Office Mojo reported Wednesday. And this after opening commercially only in mid-December. Clearly Avatar’s days are not numbered, certainly for the time being, while its cinematic impact is expected to be immense. « 3-D is going to be all the rage, » predicts Jeff Bock, chief analyst for box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations.

But is it really going to be the most successful movie of all time? Howard Lichtman thinks not. He’s the well-regarded honcho of the Toronto-based consultancy The Lightning Group. While he doesn’t deny Avatar’s clout, he thinks it has some way to go before it surpasses the box-office achievement of two « old-school » features: Cameron’s own Titanic, which earned roughly $601-million of its $1.84-billion worldwide gross from U.S. and Canadian patrons, and Gone with the Wind. He calls the latter « truly the all-time domestic champ » for North America and, with some tweaking, the world.

How? Well, you have to adjust for inflation. When Gone with the Wind was released in North America in 1939, it earned an astonishing $198.7-million when the average ticket price was only 23 cents. This translates into a total of more than 800 million admissions at a time when the combined population of the U.S. and Canada was about 145 million!

Of course, as Lichtman observes, this was in the pre-TV/pre-Internet/pre-DVD era. If you wanted to see Gone with the Wind, you had to go to a theatre. « In today’s world, moviegoers are more likely to see the film a second [third or fourth] time at home. » Adjust GWTW’s domestic box-office for inflation, and its gross is $1.48-billion. Do the same for Avatar’s, and its domestic gross so far is about $380-million – enough for an 87th-place position among the top 100 all-time box-office champs.

« Accordingly, Avatar would have to gross four times as much in North America [adjusted for inflation] in order to equal » what Clark Gable and Vivien Leigh accomplished 70 years ago, Lichtman said.

Making the achievement even more impressive is that GWTW was available in only one format back then. Avatar, by contrast, is earning revenue from three « platforms » – 3-D, 3-D Imax, 2-D – at a time when the average ticket price in North America is about $7.35. Factor in the $2 or $3 extra that the special « platforms » charge and it’s a safe bet that to date fewer than 50 million Canadians and Americans have seen Cameron’s futuristic fantasy.Another Avatar advantage is that it has been released in China – something GWTW didn’t experience until Beijing loosened cultural restrictions in the late 1970s. China allows only 20 foreign films to screen in local theatres each year. When Avatar opened there earlier this week, its one-day gross was almost $5-million (U.S.).

All-time worldwide box office – not adjusted for inflation

Source: boxofficemojo.com

All-time box office – adjusted for inflation

Source: boxofficemojo.com